Boise rents plummeted in December. What happened to the pandemic ‘poster child’?

Rents in Boise fell at a faster rate than any other major American city in December, capping another full year in decline — and signaling a further shift toward sanity for tenants across the COVID-era boomtown.

Monthly prices citywide have now fallen for three of the past four years, according to research by Apartment List, an online rental clearinghouse. Month over month, rental rates fell 2.3% in December, compared with a 0.8% rise nationwide.

A year-end dip isn’t uncommon in northern markets, Apartment List Lead Researcher Rob Warnock told the Statesman. December is the slowest month for rentals “across the board,” he said, because it's when the fewest people are moving — particularly in cold-weather cities. Ninety of the 100 cities Warnock tracks saw rents fall last month, though none besides Boise declined by more than 1.8%.

To Warnock, though, the long-term trends point to a market that has lost some of the sheen that made it so appealing during the pandemic.

“We track a number of market indicators — prices, occupancy, construction, lease timelines, etc. — and what it’s telling us is that while Boise was the poster-child for the early pandemic housing boom, it’s lost some of the relative affordability that made it so attractive a few years ago.”

In 2021, rent growth in Boise topped out about 30% year-over-year, Warnock said.

“Today,” he said, “it’s essentially flat.”

Boise remains (relatively) affordable

These short- and long-term trends collided to make Boise the slowest growing — or, in this case, fastest-falling — rental market among America’s 100 largest cities in December.

Median rents ran $1,068 for a one-bedroom and $1,230 for a two-bedroom, according to Apartment List. Across all the entire rental market, the median rent was $1,235. At the market’s peak in 2021, that figure topped $1,400, Warnock said. The nearly 12% drop translates to some $2,000 in savings to renters each year.

Prices may feel high to longtime residents, but Boise borders on the bottom quartile for rent prices among large U.S. cities.

Boise’s $1,235 median figure puts Boise 74th out of 100, slotted between Arlington, Texas, and Glendale, Arizona. It’s also $121 per month cheaper than the national average.

San Francisco topped Apartment List’s December survey with median rents $3,078 per month. Cleveland brought up the bottom at $1,004 per month.

Fallings prices boon to renters, challenge for developers

Apartment List uses citywide figures, and changes vary neighborhood by neighborhood. The softening trend has created affordable pockets within Boise.

On Monday, Capitol City Development Corp. Planner Corrie Brending told the board of CCDC, Boise’s urban-renewal agency, that market-rate rents in the agency’s State Street District west of downtown are, by city standards, “naturally” affordable for renters earning 60%-80% of Boise’s area median income. That’s translates to month rent between $1,124 and $1,499 for an individual or $1,605 to $2,140 for a family of four, per Boise affordability guidelines.

For a city pursuing housing supply, today’s conditions represent a mixed bag — better for renters, but bad for builders. Sliding rents and soaring construction costs have pinched developers, Brending said, stalling at least three large-scale projects in the State Street district. And despite market prices are stabilizing, housing supply — particularly for low-earning residents — remains a challenge.

“There’s a need for housing across all income levels in our city,” she said.