The Idaho real estate market shows strength, but could fears over Trump tariffs come home?
There’s a lot going on in the news these days as questions about tariffs, deportations and politics fill headlines daily.
But if you’ve ever wanted to buy your first house, or are ready to change the scenery and buy a new one, you might be wondering: What does this all mean for those dreams?
In short, it’s still likely too early to tell as we swing into the spring homebuying season. But one thing is certain: Homeowners are jumping into the market and selling after years of steep prices, high mortgages and limited supply.
According to Cassie Zimmerman, marketing accounts manager in the Boise office of The Agency, an international real estate brokerage, rising inventory is kick-starting the season.
“With a notable boost in listings compared to last year, buyers and sellers are gearing up for the spring housing market in the Treasure Valley,” Zimmerman said in a news release. “Most of the movement is in available inventory and increased sales.”
Ada County saw over 26% more homes hit the market in February 2025 than in the previous February, while Canyon County saw nearly 40% more homes, she said.
Both sales and prices are up from last year, too. Ada County saw an increase in sales of just over 14% compared with last February, while Canyon County saw an 11.5% increase, she said.
Median home prices edged up 2.1% in Ada County since last February to $530,000, while Canyon County saw an increase of 1.6% to about $416,500, Zimmerman said.
Is the SW Idaho real estate market stabilizing?
According to Lauren Clark, a Realtor with The Beacon Group at The Agency Boise, the markers seem to point toward a balanced real estate market in the Treasure Valley.
“Sales are up, inventory is up and prices are steady,” Clark said in the release. “When we look at metrics that measure competitiveness in the market, conditions seem healthy, unlike what we saw during the home-buying frenzy fueled by low mortgage rates a few years ago.”
The increased inventory, stabilizing prices and longer listing times is an interesting switch-up over the past few years after the COVID-19 pandemic took a sledgehammer to the market with a boom in remote work that let people move across the country to places that aligned better with their values and lifestyles.
Idaho was a hotspot for movers, winning the medal for the fastest growing state in 2021. From 2020 to 2023, the state gained nearly 139,000 new residents, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. That growth put intense pressure on the market as new buyers snapped up homes and started bidding wars that catapulted prices over historic levels.
At its highest in March 2021, buyers in Ada and Canyon counties were buying homes at an average of about 4% over the original listing price, according to data from The Agency. That average fell to 2% below the original listing price in February, which hints at a decrease in competition.
The average time a house sits on the market has also fallen from a blazing fast 10 days in Ada County and 14 days in Canyon County in June 2021 to 52 days in Ada County and 64 days in Canyon County in February, Zimmerman said.
These points, Zimmerman said, indicate a healthier and less frantic market than from 2020 to 2022.
Thirty-year mortgage rates are also seeing some decreases, falling from a high of about 7% in mid-January to about 6.7% in mid-March, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
National trends come to Boise area
But it’s uncertain how long these promising signs could last as uncertainty sweeps through markets in response to President Donald Trump’s economic policies, such as his back-and-forth use of tariffs.
According to the Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae, the economy and labor market entered the year on firm footing. But Trump’s policies present “higher-than-usual risks to our forecast” and could lead to heightened volatility.
Nationally, many economists expect the use of tariffs to increase inflationary pressures and possibly to affect mortgage rates. But according to Fannie Mae’s February 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, it’s not clear how.
“If additional tariffs are implemented, there are plausible scenarios where it could lead to either higher or lower mortgage rates, depending on the details, timing and the reaction of foreign nations and central banks,” according to the report. “We continue to expect mortgage rate volatility as markets react to tariff implementation, incoming economic data and other fiscal policy changes.”
Home builders are responding to the economic uncertainty, with national builder confidence dropping three points between February and March, marking its lowest level in seven months, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
“Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate,” according to the association.
Those trends could come to the Treasure Valley, too. According to Taylor Gray, director of communications for Boise Regional Realtors, Trump has created uncertainty by threatening, then suspending, tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Uncertainty “surrounds the implementation of Trump’s agenda on tariffs, which could influence homebuilding costs and long-term borrowing rates,” Gray said by email. “Higher tariffs could spur good inflation and drive interest rates higher.”
The Federal Reserve, which is tasked with keeping employment high and prices stable, announced during its most recent meeting on March 19 that it planned to hold interest rates steady and lowered economic growth forecasts.
Higher interest rates are used to lower inflation and lower the demand for goods, affecting a broad range of things from car payments and student loans to credit cards. They also strongly impact mortgage rates. As interest rates go higher, mortgage rates also generally move upward — pushing potential buyers to shuck out more money for a home.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that hard data points toward a healthy economy and that “overall it’s a solid picture,” but there are some concerns.
“Inflation has started to move up now, we think partly in response to tariffs,” Powell said. “The survey data, of both household and businesses, show a significant rise in uncertainty.”
Powell said that the Federal Reserve is waiting for greater clarity about what the economy is doing before cutting or raising interest rates.
