Update: Trump says tariffs on 2 of Idaho’s top trade partners start Tuesday. What to know
Update Monday, March 3, 2025: President Donald Trump told reporters Monday in Washington, D.C., that 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico would take effect Tuesday, the Associated Press and other news outlets reported. “The new import taxes are likely to raise the market prices of Mexican tequila, beer and avocados, and Canadian crude oil and lumber, testing consumer patience with the president’s approach,” the Washington Post reported.
Update Friday, Jan. 31, 2025: The White House said Friday that it plans to move forward with blanket tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China by the end of the week, according to The New York Times. The three countries are America’s largest trading partners. Goods from Canada and Mexico would be subject to 25% tariffs, and goods from China would face 10% tariffs. President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that the tariffs were punishment for allowing illegal drugs and migrants into the U.S., The Times reported.
The story below was published Jan. 23, 2025, under the headline, “Canada, Mexico are 2 of Idaho’s top 3 trading partners. What tariffs could do to Idaho.”
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico in a sweeping shift in North American trade policy that would have significant implications for Idaho’s economy.
Canada is the largest market for Idaho goods, and Mexico is No. 3, after Taiwan. The state shipped $2.9 billion in domestic agricultural exports abroad in 2022, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Trump said hours after his inauguration speech Monday that he’s thinking of implementing the tariffs Feb. 1. On Tuesday, he said he would also place a 10% tariff on products from China by the same date, The New York Times reported. The three countries are America’s largest trading partners.
When one country imposes tariffs on goods from another, the second country may retaliate with tariffs of its own. A trade war results.
Trump’s tariffs could raise more than $1 trillion in federal revenue over 10 years, according to an estimate by the nonprofit Tax Foundation. But people and businesses could pay higher prices for goods, and each side in a trade war risks losing exports.
Canada vows ‘strong national response’
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the proposed tariffs “harmful” and promised a “strong national response” in a post Wednesday on social media.
Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, met with Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, and other Republican senators in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 16. Joly told reporters the next day that the tariffs would trigger the largest trade war between the U.S. and Canada in decades, according to the Financial Post.
A spokesperson for Risch declined to comment or answer questions Wednesday about whether he supports the tariffs.
The rest of Idaho’s congressional delegation — Sen. Mike Crapo, Rep. Russ Fulcher and Rep. Mike Simpson — did not respond to phone calls and emails requesting comment.
This much is clear: Idaho depends on international trade.
5 Idaho metro areas each export $100 million+ yearly
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the state’s major metropolitan areas benefit from exporting products to other countries. In 2022, Coeur d’Alene, Twin Falls, Idaho Falls, Pocatello and Lewiston each exported hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of goods.
Under Trump’s proposed trade policies, the state’s agricultural sector could face major disruptions. Industry leaders are paying attention.
Cameron Mulrony, executive vice president of the Idaho Cattle Association, said that until the policies are implemented, it’s hard to say how the tariffs would affect the state’s beef industry. Idaho exported $381 million in agricultural goods to Canada in 2023, according to the Canadian government, including $87 million in live bovine animals, or cattle.
“Foreign demand is still high and that helps,” Mulrony said in a statement emailed to the Idaho Statesman. “We have more cows than people in Idaho, and we have to be able to get it out.”
Dairy leader worries about ‘negative consequences’
Idaho also exported $33 million in butter to Canada the same year.
Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, told the Statesman that the U.S. also ships large quantities of shelf-stable dairy products like milk proteins and cheese to Mexico. Food and agriculture make up the vast majority of goods Idaho sends to Mexico, according to data from Idaho Commerce.
“It’s definitely something we’re watching,” Naerebout said by phone. “Mexico has historically been our biggest trade partner for dairy products. If we lose that demand due to tariffs, it’s going to affect our pricing.”
He said the loss of demand would have “negative market consequences,” leading to depressed prices and an oversupply of dairy products in the U.S. It could force Idaho producers to slow production or look for more domestic buyers.
A spokesperson for the Idaho Department of Commerce declined to respond to questions about how the proposed tariffs would affect Idaho’s economy, saying it’s “too early to provide definitive answers.” And a spokesperson for the Idaho Department of Agriculture said it wasn’t their place to “discuss hypotheticals.”
“I think everybody’s just watching and waiting to see if it’s going to come to fruition,” Naerebout said. “Our senators and our congressmen fully understand the value of Idaho agriculture and what tariffs could pose in terms of potential risks for our markets.”
This story was originally published January 23, 2025 at 4:00 AM.
