Could Boise real estate become a ‘million-dollar market’ in a decade? Maybe. Here’s how
If you thought home prices were expensive in Boise already, you may want to hold onto your blue-and-orange-colored hats.
According to a report from Realtor.com, the city is poised to become a million-dollar market in the next decade. Realtor.com projects that by 2033, the median home price in Boise could top $1.1 million.
“Various popular markets such as Boise have seen substantial price growth in recent years as buyer demand put pressure on inventory, leading to climbing prices and competitions,” Realtor.com economist Hannah Jones said in the report. “If these trends continue, prices could exceed $1 million in the next decade in some markets that are currently relatively affordable.”
To determine this, the real estate platform studied the growth in home prices from 2014 to 2019, which it said was a relatively stable period between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. The company then applied that rate of growth to what it said was Boise’s 2023 median sales price of $464,578 and projected that the price would hit $735,026 in 2028 and $1.16 million in 2033.
That would compete with prices in other, larger cities including Portland, Denver, Sacramento, Boston, Honolulu and Seattle.
But, is this accurate? Could homes really cost over a million dollars before your kid graduates from high school or college?
“There are several factors that can affect overall home prices, which makes it nearly impossible to pin down what the market will do in 10 years,” said Elizabeth Hume, the president of Boise Regional Realtors, by email. “Just look at the pandemic to see how abruptly things can shift.”
The median home price in Ada County was $210,000 in 2014 and grew to $345,000 by 2019, according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service. By 2022, that number had jumped to nearly $511,000.
The Great Recession also saw a dramatic change in home prices, with the median price dropping from about $201,000 in 2008 to $167,000 in 2009.
According to Boise Regional Realtors, Ada County’s median sales price has increased an average of 6.7% year-over-year since 2004. Using Ada County’s median price of $540,000 for October 2024, that would mean that it would take about 12.7 years for the Ada County median to break $1 million.
“While we can’t assume what the next decade may look like, what we do know is this: As the demand for our area remains strong, so does the pressure on supply, which we know is a direct link to affordability,” Hume said.
While Hume couldn’t speak to the next five to 10 years, she said Idaho made it into the top 20 states for new residents in the National Association of Realtors’ 2024 migration trend report.
According to the report, some of the strongest motivators for people moving in the West included moving closer to friends and family, being able to buy “more home for the money,” and being unable to afford to buy in their previous location.
“Home buyers are placing a priority on getting more bang for their buck, looking to areas with not only more space within their home but also favorable taxes,” said Jessica Lautz, the National Association of Realtors’ deputy chief economist, in the report. “This migration flow will likely continue as retirees and remote workers relocate.”
Hume said Idaho’s unique access to outdoor and extracurricular activities also increases its desirability for those looking to move.
