Boise State vs. Air Force: Who gets the edge, players to watch on Broncos’ senior day

When the Broncos run the ball ...

Boise State is coming off one of its best rushing performances in recent years with 310 rushing yards at Colorado State, its most against an FBS team since racking up 312 at Wyoming on Nov. 22, 2014. During their six-game winning streak, the Broncos are averaging 187.2 yards per game rushing.

“(Alexander Mattison) is just seeing the field real well, he’s just going out there and playing ball,” offensive coordinator Zak Hill said of the sophomore who had 242 yards last Saturday. “He’s one of those guys we need to get touches.”

The Falcons have allowed 234.7 rushing ypg (122nd nationally) but have played three fellow option teams. They’re yielding a more respectable 160.1 ypg in the other seven games, but even the 4.8 yards per carry in those contests isn’t great. All FBS foes have rushed for at least 100 yards.

ADVANTAGE: Boise State

When the Broncos pass the ball ...

All of a sudden, Boise State is potent passing again. The ground game has opened it up a bit, but junior quarterback Brett Rypien has been on fire, with 849 yards, nine TDs and one interception in his last three games. The Broncos also have spread it around, with at least seven pass catchers in those games.

[Air Force at Boise State, 8:15 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2 — click here for fans guide]

Air Force is No. 1 against the pass in the FBS, allowing 143.1 ypg. That’s thanks in part to playing run-heavy teams and teams that see an advantage they can exploit. Opponents’ 131.82 passer rating ranks 53rd nationally. The Falcons’ nine sacks are tied for second-fewest.

“They’re going to come out physical. ... Last year, we didn’t connect in the first half. I think we definitely could’ve had the game,” Boise State wide receiver Cedrick Wilson said. “They bring a lot of pressure, they feel their guys are better than ours. We have to win the one-on-ones.”

ADVANTAGE: Boise State

When the Falcons run the ball ...

Everyone knows Air Force will run, and run again. But it’s not so easy to stop, the up-tempo mixed with the triple option and the constant cut blocks. The Falcons are No. 5 in the FBS with 310.1 rushing ypg, and tops with 63.2 attempts per game. They’re averaging 406.8 ypg in wins, 245.7 ypg in losses.

“You still have the triple-option component ... there’s not much difference from that standpoint,” Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said. “There’s a misconception that’s all they do, like they only have five or six plays. That’s not the case, they do a really good job game-planning.”

The Broncos allowed a season-high 261 rushing yards at Colorado State, owner of the sort of balanced offense that’s given them issues. But Boise State has been good at making teams one-dimensional, still ranking 19th at 121.9 rushing ypg allowed. In their three straight losses to Air Force, the Broncos are allowing 309.7 ypg.

ADVANTAGE: Air Force

When the Falcons pass the ball ...

Though it is certainly not their forte, the Falcons pose a threat when they decide to throw. Their 58 completions are fourth-fewest in the FBS, but they average 20.2 yards per catch, trying to lull teams into defending the run, then throwing over the top.

Boise State allowed 309 yards through the air at Colorado State, but even including the Virginia loss, the Broncos are allowing 140.6 yards per game at home. Two years ago in Air Force’s last visit, the Falcons had 279 yards on nine completions, their most in 26 years.

“I think it teaches us a lot of discipline and eye control ... you’re going to be all right if you have that,” junior linebacker Leighton Vander Esch said. “You just have to relax and play ball.”

ADVANTAGE: Boise State

Special teams ...

Boise State’s turnaround continues to impress, with the Broncos scoring on two punt returns while kicking well, too. Kicker Haden Hoggarth is third in the nation with a 92.3 percentage (12-of-13) on field goals. The Broncos are No. 16 nationally in punt-return defense (3.5 yards per return).

Air Force kicker Luke Strebel is 7-of-10 on field goals and punter Charlie Scott is solid with a 41.8-yard average. The Falcons have allowed a punt-return touchdown and their 17.4 yards per return allowed is 128th nationally. They have blocked two kicks, which is interesting since they have blocked kicks against Boise State for three straight years (two field goals, one punt).

ADVANTAGE: Boise State

AIR FORCE

Ronald Cleveland, wide receiver

He’s small, but the definition of a playmaker. The 5-foot-9, 174-pound junior caught four passes for 162 yards last year, scoring three touchdowns. This season, he is second on the Falcons with 10 catches and 245 yards. He also has 39 carries for 379 yards and has five total TDs.

“It was just a matter of when the opportunities came. He certainly cashed in on them,” offensive coordinator Mike Theissen told The (Colorado Springs) Gazette.

Arion Worthman, quarterback

The 5-foot-11, 205-pound junior is the focal point of the Falcons’ attack. He leads the team with 821 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns (seventh among FBS quarterbacks). He also is 54-of-109 passing for 1,100 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions.

“He’s done a really good job ... Worthman’s done a nice job in the pass game,” Boise State defensive coordinator Andy Avalos said. “They’ve added some concepts that are going to be difficult that they’ve got guys on. It’s going to be a huge challenge for us.”

Grant Ross, linebacker

A 6-1, 225-pound senior inside linebacker, Ross is second on the team with 79 total tackles and leads the team with six tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. He’s the lone returning starter on the defense from last season, when he was third with 67 total tackles in 11 games.

“If you’re going to have (one) returning starter, I do think it does help that it’s an inside backer to help the guys up front, to help the guys back behind,” coach Troy Calhoun said.

BOISE STATE

Cedrick Wilson, wide receiver

From a nagging shoulder to an ankle that was operated on earlier this year to a helmet against the turf last week, Wilson has fought through a lot. Harsin noted Wilson often wears the no-contact jersey in practice, but that doesn’t make him complacent — he has 53 catches for 901 yards.

“I’m feeling better than some people,” Wilson said. “I have to save (the hits) for the game. I’ve been put in a leadership role, so not slacking off is part of what I have to do.”

Leighton Vander Esch, linebacker

The ultra-productive junior from Riggins had 13 tackles last Saturday at Colorado State and provided the winning play with a forced fumble in overtime. Battling some minor injuries, his ability to trudge through a 95-play game was impressive.

“Him being in the game late made a huge impact and changed the game,” Harsin said.

Vander Esch, who had missed seven games before last year’s game at Air Force, had nine tackles and an interception in the last meeting.

Jake Roh, tight end

The senior leads the nation in touchdown catches at his position (nine) and even has two rushing touchdowns. But he wasn’t a semifinalist for the John Mackey Award, honoring the top tight end. No matter, he isn’t one for the glory, and lets his career-high 38 catches speak for themselves.

“It’s just been a really cool opportunity here, been in a great situation,” Roh said. “... Trying to make the most of this, potentially our last night on the Blue.”

This story was originally published November 17, 2017 at 9:17 PM with the headline "Boise State vs. Air Force: Who gets the edge, players to watch on Broncos’ senior day."