Idaho football playoffs start next week. How your favorite team can make it to state
Using MaxPreps.com rankings to seed the Idaho state football playoffs brought a lot of positives to the state. But one cost was certainty.
At the end of Friday night, few teams will know their opponent when the playoffs start next week. An unlucky set of tiebreakers and MaxPreps’ secret formula mean nearly every school will need to wait for the website to calculate its final rankings to learn their playoff fate.
The Idaho High School Activities Association plans to publish those final numbers either Sunday or Monday, along with the corresponding brackets. It all depends on how quickly they can get the numbers from MaxPreps, said Mike Federico, an assistant director for the IHSAA.
The playoff picture may remain murky, but it’s not entirely a mystery. We broke down all the known quantities and sized up the likely scenarios for the Treasure Valley’s 5A, 4A, 3A and 2A conferences below.
5A SIC
Automatic playoff berths: 7
Potential at-large berths: 1
Playoff field: 12 teams
Clinched: Eagle, Meridian
Eliminated: Nampa
Friday’s games: (1) Meridian at (1) Eagle; (6) Kuna at (2) Rocky Mountain; (6) Centennial at (2) Boise; (5) Borah at (3) Middleton; (5) Timberline at (3) Owyhee; (4) Capital at (4) Mountain View
First, a brief explainer how the 5A SIC playoff seeds work.
The two division winners have already secured playoff berths and first-round byes. They will battle for the league title and the conference’s top two seeds. Simple enough.
Everyone else meets in winner-to-state games. Those winners take the league’s remaining five guaranteed playoff berths. But how they are seeded gets a bit complicated.
The first tiebreaker is the winner’s division finish. But neither of the No. 2 or No. 3 teams in the divisions played each other. So if the favorites all win, the next tiebreaker is MaxPreps rankings. And we won’t know those official rankings and the first-round matchups until Sunday, at the earliest.
But here’s what we know and the key games to keep an eye on.
Eagle: A win over Meridian gives the Mustangs the league title and earns Eagle home-field advantage until the state finals. A loss sends Eagle to the top side of the bracket, where it would get a home game in the quarterfinals but would likely need to travel for the semifinals.
Meridian: Beat Eagle and the Warriors repeat as 5A SIC champs. The league title comes with home-field advantage in the quarterfinals and semifinals. A loss puts Meridian on the top of the bracket, where it would need to travel for the semifinals unless East Idaho champ Highland gets upset in the quarterfinals.
Boise: Beat Centennial and it advances to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. The Brave would then earn the West 3 or West 4 seed and host a first-round game. Boise currently holds a narrow, but not insurmountable, lead over Rocky Mountain in the MaxPreps rankings for the tiebreaker if both win.
Rocky Mountain: Beat Kuna and it goes to the playoffs for the 12th straight year. The Grizzlies will be the West 3 or West 4 seed and host a first-round game. A Boise loss guarantees Rocky Mountain the third seed. If both win, the final MaxPreps rankings serve as the tiebreaker.
Owyhee: Beat Timberline and it clinches a playoff berth. The Storm would finish as the fifth seed if Boise and Rocky Mountain both win, thanks to a sizable lead over Middleton in the MaxPreps rankings. A loss by Boise or Rocky Mountain bumps Owyhee up a spot. An Owyhee loss would leave the Storm rooting for Mountain View, Boise, Rocky Mountain and Rigby to win to boost their odds for the at-large berth.
Middleton: A victory vs. Borah and no upsets would make the Vikings the West 6 seed. That would send Middleton to the winner of Rigby at Madison in the first round. A loss would drop Middleton into the at-large pool, where it would need Mountain View to win to stay alive for the final playoff berth. Wins by Rigby and Post Falls would also help.
Mountain View: Beat Capital and it goes to the playoffs for the 11th straight year. With no upsets, the Mavericks would claim the West 7 seed, which comes with a road trip to the North Idaho runner-up (likely Post Falls). But Mountain View also holds the strongest position to make it to state even with a loss. The Mavericks enter the week at No. 2 in the MaxPreps rankings thanks to their strength of schedule, making them nearly impossible to beat for the at-large berth if they need it.
Capital: Beat Mountain View and the Eagles get a guaranteed playoff berth. Capital would be the West 7 seed without any upsets in the other 5A SIC games. A loss almost assuredly ends Capital’s season as it trails Borah, Kuna, Rigby and Madison by miles in the MaxPreps rankings.
Borah: A win at Middleton sends the Lions to the playoffs. They would be the West 7 without any other upsets. A loss and wins by Mountain View, Rigby and Post Falls would leave Borah in strong position for the at-large berth.
Timberline: The Wolves must upset Owyhee to make the playoffs. They are far too low in the MaxPreps rankings to be considered for the at-large berth. They cannot finish higher than West 7 unless Kuna and/or Centennial also win.
Kuna: Upset Rocky Mountain to clinch a playoff berth. The Kavemen would need Centennial to also win to climb higher than the West 7. A loss makes it extremely hard for Kuna to get the at-large berth as it starts the week No. 14 in the MaxPreps ranking.
Centennial: Knocking off Boise remains the Patriots’ only route to the playoffs. They can’t finish higher than West 7 no matter what else happens.
4A SIC
Automatic playoff berths: 2
Potential at-large berths: 4
Playoff field: 16 teams
Clinched: Bishop Kelly, Skyview
Eliminated: None
Thursday’s games: Nampa at Vallivue
Friday’s games: Skyview at Bishop Kelly; Ridgevue at Emmett; Caldwell at Columbia
Bishop Kelly: A win over Skyview clinches back-to-back league titles. The Knights have already secured a playoff berth and a first-round home game. But they won’t know their seed and opponent until the final MaxPreps rankings are published.
Skyview: Beating Bishop Kelly would earn the league title. But Skyview will likely still get a lower state seed because finishing first or second comes with no extra benefits. Skyview starts the week five spots behind Bishop Kelly in the MaxPreps rankings, so the Hawks would need a blowout win to even hope to vault past the Knights. Skyview hosts a first-round game even with a loss.
Emmett: The Huskies are all but in the playoffs, starting the week well above the cutline for an at-large bid at No. 11 in the MaxPreps rankings. A win over Ridgevue would solidify the berth. Emmett likely still makes it with a loss, but it would have to wait for the final rankings to be sure.
Columbia: The Wildcats start just below the cutline but have a chance to sneak in. Columbia must beat Caldwell and then hope Canyon Ridge crushes Burley to have a shot at vaulting past Burley in the rankings for the final playoff berth.
Ridgevue, Vallivue: Neither is technically eliminated, but both teams would need a miracle or for someone to discover a MaxPreps error to make up enough ground for an at-large berth.
3A SRV
Automatic playoff berths: 3
Potential at-large berths: 3
Playoff field: 14 teams
Clinched: Homedale
Eliminated: None
Friday’s games: Homedale at McCall-Donnelly; Fruitland at Weiser; Payette at Parma
Homedale: A win over McCall-Donnelly clinches Homedale its sixth straight league title and a first-round bye. The Trojans can also earn the league title with a Weiser victory and a loss by four or fewer points, but that puts their first-round bye in jeopardy.
Weiser: A win over Fruitland secures the Wolverines a playoff spot. Weiser would need to win and see McCall-Donnelly beat Homedale by five or more points to become the league champ. A loss and a Homedale victory forces a three-way, Kansas City tiebreaker between Weiser, McCall and Fruitland for the final two automatic playoff berths.
McCall-Donnelly: The Vandals win the league title by beating Homedale, and if Fruitland tops Weiser. McCall gets an automatic playoff berth with a Weiser victory. A loss and a Weiser loss forces a Kansas City tiebreaker between Weiser, McCall and Fruitland for the final two automatic playoff berths.
Fruitland: The Grizzlies must beat Weiser and see McCall upset Homedale for an automatic playoff berth. If Homedale wins, Fruitland must beat Weiser to force a three-way playoff for second and third place next week. A loss leaves Fruitland in the at-large pool, where wins from Sugar-Salem and Timberlake would help its odds.
Parma, Payette: Neither one is technically eliminated, but both schools are eliminated from the SRV’s automatic bids, and they are the two last-place teams in the MaxPreps rankings, making it pretty much impossible to compete for an at-large bid.
2A WIC
Automatic playoff berths: 1
Potential at-large berths: 2
Playoff field: 11 teams
Clinched: None
Eliminated: None
Friday’s games: Cole Valley Christian at New Plymouth
Saturday’s games: Melba at Nampa Christian
This one is relatively straightforward. Melba and Nampa Christian battle for the league title Saturday. The winner gets the lone automatic state berth. The loser should comfortably finish in position for an at-large bid.
Marsing currently sits in position for the final at-large playoff berth. A North Fremont win over Ririe helps the idle Huskies’ case. But with MaxPreps’ secret formula, Marsing will have to wait until the final rankings come out to learn if it’s in the playoffs for the first time since 2012.
New Plymouth and Cole Valley are technically alive, but by playing each other, they don’t have the quality opponent needed to vault past Marsing.
This story was originally published October 18, 2023 at 3:10 PM.
