Below are my weekly bowl projections that started last week and will continue through the end of the regular season.
For the second week in a row, I’ve penciled Boise State into the Fiesta Bowl. The reason: I think the College Football Playoff selection committee’s emphasis on strength of schedule (see Oregon over Florida State and TCU over Baylor) is going to prevent the group from rewarding Marshall for going undefeated against one of the worst schedules in the country.
ESPN has a post today breaking down the strength-of-schedule numbers that fall in Boise State’s favor.
The problem for Boise State: The Broncos have lost a game in November each of the past four seasons that has cost them dearly, including twice to the San Diego State team that comes to Albertsons Stadium on Saturday night.
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New Year’s Six
Rose (Jan. 1, Pasadena, Calif.): Oregon (2) vs. Mississippi State (3)
Sugar (Jan. 1, New Orleans): Alabama (1) vs. Baylor (4)
Cotton (Jan. 1, Arlington, Texas): TCU (at-large) vs. UCLA (at-large)
Peach (Dec. 31, Atlanta): Auburn (at-large) vs. Michigan State (at-large)
Orange (Dec. 31, Miami Gardens, Fla.): Florida State (ACC) vs. Ohio State (Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame)
Fiesta (Dec. 31, Glendale, Ariz.): Boise State (Group of Five) vs. Arizona State (at-large)
Las Vegas (Dec. 20): Colorado State vs. Stanford (Pac-12)
Cactus (Jan. 2, Tempe, Ariz.): Air Force vs. Washington (Pac-12)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20, Boise): Utah State vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Poinsettia (Dec. 23, San Diego): San Diego State vs. Navy (Navy/MAC)
Hawaii (Dec. 24, Honolulu): Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech (C-USA)
Note: In this projection, the Mountain West would vacate spots in New Orleans (Dec. 20) vs. Louisiana (Sun Belt), and in New Mexico (Dec. 20, Albuquerque) vs. UTEP (C-USA).
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