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Kevin Richert: Best-case economic scenario: We're No. 61!

Kevin Richert - krichert@idahostatesman.com

Copyright: © 2009 Idaho Statesman

Published: 06/25/09


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The Treasure Valley made another one of those national lists, falling somewhere between 61 and 80.

The Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution tracked the recession and recovery in 100 metropolitan areas. The Valley landed in group No. 4, the second-weakest group of 20 cities.

The Valley numbers are uniformly grim:

- Employment dropped by 3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, ranking No. 99 out of 100 metros.

- During the same timeframe, the Valley's Gross Metropolitan Product dropped by 1.4 percent, ranking No. 78.

- Housing prices dropped by 7.6 percent from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, ranking No. 76.

- The lone bright spot: The average wage increased by 2.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. This placed the Valley No. 6 in the nation.

Now, let the blame game commence.

Local Republican blogger Adam Graham tries to work the report into a partisan swipe at Boise Mayor Dave Bieter and the City Council. "Heck of a job, Bieter," he writes. "Is Boise ready for some common sense in government for a change?"

That's an oversimplification, First off, Brookings looked at economic trends across the Valley, including conservative municipalities such as Nampa, Eagle and Meridian.

Second, a cursory look at the Brookings map shows that the Valley is in the same boat with most Western metropolitan areas, including Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tucson, Ariz., Portland, and 11 metro areas in California.

The Brookings analysis suggests the Treasure Valley is Sun Belt North.

"Large swaths of the South and West ... have suffered severe employment, output and home value declines over the past year due to the broader housing fallout. Wages in those metro areas have risen rapidly, most likely due to a slowdown in less-skilled migration to those areas, and to disproportionate losses of lower-paying jobs."

Sounds familiar.

Downtown developer Mark Rivers takes a more nuanced and constructive view. "It's not as though six months from now everything will be the way it was - it's not. We're hitting the reset button for the way we do things," he told Jill Kuraitis of NewWest.Net/Boise. "We have to rethink, reimagine and reinvent ourselves."

There's work ahead for everyone, and blame to go around. The Valley certainly thrived on (and courted) the real estate boom. But I also think this made us complacent. We coasted on the wave and didn't do enough to diversify our employment base.

The Brookings numbers - which will be updated quarterly - provide graphic evidence of what happens when a boom ends abruptly.

REPORTER BARRED

Heath Druzin, a former Statesman state government reporter, has been barred from reporting with a U.S. Army unit attempting to secure the city of Mosul, Iraq.

Druzin left the Statesman in August to work for Stars and Stripes. The Army has rejected his request to work as an embedded reporter, covering the 1st Cavalry Division in Mosul, an insurgent stronghold.

According to Stars and Stripes, "(Druzin) would not be permitted to rejoin the unit for another reporting tour because, among other things, he wrote in a March 8 story that many Iraqi residents of Mosul would like the American soldiers to leave and hand over security tasks to Iraqi forces."

In their rejection letter, Army officials say Druzin "refused to highlight" good news from Iraq. Yet, in an amusing twist, the Stars and Stripes Web site links to the Druzin stories that the Army has criticized. Among the headlines: "Mosul is still open for business," and "Army officer has chance for Olympic glory, but the cost would be leaving his platoon in Mosul."

These are objectionable stories?

"The denial of the embed constitutes an attempt at censorship and it is also an illegal prior restraint under federal law," Stars and Stripes editorial director Terry Leonard says. "The military cannot tell us what stories to write or not write."

Hear, hear.

LET LAW ENFORCEMENT DO ITS JOB

I'm a huge fan of "Forensic Files," the cable show that condenses complicated criminal investigations into a 30-minute bloc.

I also realize that real-life casework moves much more slowly.

If you've been concerned or impatient about the investigations of Boise's three recent cycling fatalities, reread Wednesday's paper. Patrick Orr's story and Police Chief Mike Masterson's Reader's View take a good step back from the heat of the moment.

The fact is, it often takes months to investigate a fatal accident and to decide whether to press charges. This is standard procedure.

Law enforcement needs to take its time. Even when - especially when - public scrutiny is at its peak.

It seems like everybody in the motorists-vs.-cyclists debate has a horror story about some jerk in a hurry. Some motorist who races to make a turn in front of a cyclist. Some cyclist who rolls through a red light without stopping. Now, can we all just slow down and let the police and the prosecutors do their jobs?

Kevin Richert: 377-6437

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