While Boise struggles to recover from thousands of lost tech jobs, the Coeur d'Alene region is landing new companies, boosting payroll and getting out from under the loss of jobs that marked this recession.

Coeur d'Alene is in rare company. While signs indicate that the worst of the recession may be over nationwide, Coeur d'Alene is one of only six metropolitan areas across the country expected to regain their pre-recession employment levels by the end of 2009, according to projections from IHS Global Insight, a leading economic forecaster.

In contrast, Boise likely won't see a return to pre-recession jobs numbers until the first quarter of 2013, the report said.

IHS's forecast is close to that of Moody's Economy.com, which projects the Boise region will return to pre-recession employment by the third quarter of 2012.

Moody's predicted earlier this month that Idaho would be one of the first states to slowly lead the country out of the recession. Moody's projections were based on Idaho's growing population and rebounding high-tech industry. Moody's said the state would see some job growth in 2010.

Unlike the labor market collapse that killed millions of U.S. jobs in a matter of months, the nation's return to peak employment will not be nearly as uniform nor as swift.

The bleak jobs picture underscores the long, tough road ahead in rebuilding the U.S. economy after the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Of the 6 million jobs lost since the recession began 18 months ago, nearly 4 million were eliminated between November and April. The six-month free fall included a record four straight months with more than 600,000 job losses each.

"This recession is unique because of the way it leveled the playing field," said James Diffley, IHS managing director of U.S. regional services. "The precipitating factor, after housing, was the finance industry, and that affected everybody. Now everybody's cutting back on debt, and the banks are being more cautious about lending, so there's less spending. All those things mitigate against a quick turnaround."

Other than Coeur d'Alene, the areas poised for a jobs rebound this year are: Anchorage, Alaska; Champaign-Urbana, Ill.; Columbia, Mo.; Laredo, Texas; and the Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux areas of Louisiana.

And only five areas are expected to see a similar jobs recovery in 2010: Bakersfield, Calif.; Las Cruces, N.M., and the El Paso, San Antonio and the McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr areas of Texas.

Most of the country - 286 of 325 metro areas covered in the IHS analysis- aren't likely to regain their pre-recession employment levels until at least 2012.

The IHS analysis covers 325 of 363 U.S. metropolitan areas, or population centers, as defined by the Census Bureau. Thirty-eight metro areas weren't included because of a lack of government data, said Jeannine Cataldi, an IHS senior economist.

Projections reflect a local economy's response to various economic factors based on a statistical analysis of recent history, IHS economists said.

Coeur d'Alene benefitted from not losing as many jobs as other areas, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In April, Coeur d'Alene was down 200 jobs from the year before. The Boise region was down 19,000 jobs.

The Panhandle has seen job growth from Quest Aircraft Co., a Sandpoint firm that makes airplanes and has a payroll of 270 employees, up from about 150 just 18 months ago, said Kathryn Tacke, a regional economist for the Idaho Department of Labor.

The region also is making employment gains from some Washington-based companies that crossed the border to take advantage of Idaho's more favorable business climate, Tacke said. The companies include one that collects allergens for inoculations, one that makes flexible containers and one that makes aluminum boats. The number of jobs is about 170.

Not all those jobs are in Coeur d'Alene, Tacke said, but many of those people will end up shopping and doing other business in the resort city, so the town will see gains.

"I wouldn't guarantee we are going to be back to our pre-recession numbers by end of the year, but it wouldn't surprise me," she said.

Boise's job growth will be more tepid. Economists don't expect the high-tech sector to bounce back quickly.

But the Treasure Valley's idled high-tech labor force could be attractive to some companies looking to relocate, said John Church, a Boise economist.

The region might not get a 5,000-employee plant to offset the 6,000 workers who have lost jobs at Micron Technology over the last several years. But it might get a plant with 400 to 500, he said.

"That is going to look pretty good," Church said.

Bill Roberts: 377-6408