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Caucuses, Obama fervor may give Idaho Democrats a lift

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

 

Caucus details

Votes in the caucuses that will be held around Idaho on Tuesday evening will determine which candidate wins the support of Idaho's delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention.

Republicans will choose delegates in the May 27 primary.

Here are the locations of the caucuses in the Treasure Valley:

Ada County: Qwest Arena,

233 S. Capitol Blvd., Boise

Canyon County: Nampa Civic

Center, 311 3rd St.

Elmore County: Mountain Home Senior Citizens Center, 1000 N. 3rd E.

Boise County: Senior Center, Middlefork Road, Crouch

Gem County: Emmett Junior High School cafeteria, 301 E. 4th St.

BY CHAD DRYDEN - cdryden@idahostatesman.com

Edition Date: 02/03/08


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Nobody will feel as super on Super Tuesday as Idaho Democrats.

"For the first time in many years, if ever, Idaho Democrats are going to be participants rather than spectators in a presidential contest," said Brian Cronin, caucus co-chairman for the Ada County Democrats.

Idaho Democrats will join voters in 21 other states in picking nominees Tuesday - the first time this state's citizens have joined the crush on the big election day.

But even with this spot at the national table, the caucus excitement may mean much more to the Democrats within the state than those outside of it.

Democrats remain the minority in Idaho government - outnumbered by Republicans 28-7 in the state Senate and 51-19 in the House. They gained some legislative ground in 2006, particularly in Boise.

But for the first time in decades, they were shut out of the seven statewide offices and all four seats in Congress.

"Presidential election years historically for Idaho Democrats have been horrible, because in presidential years, turnout goes up," said Jasper LiCalzi, political economy professor at the College of Idaho.

"And when turnout increases in Idaho, that means more Republicans come out."

But a presidential candidate like Sen. Barack Obama who draws 14,000 Idahoans to a rally could make for different results all the way down the ballot.

"The thing with Obama that's interesting, you see a lot of the state legislator Democrats supporting him because they want him on the ballot," LiCalzi said.

"I think they feel that Clinton would bring out more of the Republicans, the ones who hate Hillary Clinton."

The Democrats realize that.

"I'm not naive enough to expect that we're going to have Idaho come up blue on the presidential map Nov. 4, but what I do know is that many more people are enthused and engaged by what they're hearing from the Democratic Party," said John Foster, executive director of the state party. "It's all about degrees of momentum, and we certainly got enough to make a huge impact in other ways than just the presidential race."

When Obama announced he would visit Idaho, it became clear that the Democratic move to join the Super Tuesday fray had succeeded beyond wildest expectations.

The reason? The Democratic race is so tight that even Idaho's small part of the delegate pie could count at the Democratic National Convention in August.

"In that sense, even a measly 23 delegates can and may just make a difference," said Cronin.

Tuesday's caucus will determine 18 of the state's 23 delegates. The remaining five will be decided at the party's state convention in June.

Clinton has 261 delegates, Obama 190. A total of 2,025 delegates are needed for the nomination; 1,681 are up for grabs on Tuesday.

"The thing is still alive," said John Greenfield, former chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party and a Clinton campaign spokesman for Idaho. "A lot of times, by the time it gets to Idaho, it's all over."

In "the year of the small states," as Fox News campaign correspondent Molly Henneberg called it, Idaho is not alone in garnering attention.

"Every single state in play on Feb. 5 is of great importance to (the candidates) because they are fighting for every single delegate," Henneberg said.

"That is exciting for the people of Idaho that they are part of this big Super Tuesday. Their votes are going to matter. They could be the state that puts one candidate over the top."

Party leaders are expecting 10,000 to 15,000 people to attend caucuses around the state- but after Obama drew a crowd estimated at 14,000, even the best guesses are just that.

In 2004, the Idaho caucuses drew almost 5,000 people - then a state record, but now it is the same number expected as of last week for Tuesday's caucus in Ada County alone.

Being relevant comes with a long-term payoff, according to Foster, the party executive director. Democrats plan to collar caucus-goers and turn them into grass-roots activists.

"It's the single best organizing opportunity we've ever had in our party's history," Foster said. "We've been planning to take advantage of it for six months.

"Now, the Obama people have allowed us to ramp that up to a good kind of scary."

All the attention could also mean more voters participating in this November's general election. Secretary of State Ben Ysursa, a Republican, predicts near-record turnout.

"We're telling our county clerks, and they're ready to juice it up in November," Ysursa said.

"It's going to be a huge turnout and young people are going to be motivated like never before."

Chad Dryden: 672-6734

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