U.S. Rep. Walt Minnick said Tuesday that he sees hopeful signs in construction, real estate and retail sales that justify "cautious optimism" for recovery.

But Minnick warned the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce that unemployment will rise, commercial foreclosures will escalate, and governments will face budget woes.

"The next 12 months are going to be very difficult and people are going to be very impatient, because the economy is like the Queen Mary and the Queen Mary is headed south right now," said Minnick, D-Idaho. "It's going to take a long time to swing it around to the point where economic growth is noticeable to the average person."

Minnick, who opposed the $787 billion stimulus law, said Congress should resist spending more and "let the economy take its course."

The biggest problem is freeing capital for investment, said Minnick, a member of the House Financial Services Committee. "I want that capital to come back from the private sector, not from the government."

Minnick discussed another issue on which he broke with the Obama administration: his vote against an energy bill that passed by six votes last week.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were among those who lobbied Minnick when he was undecided. He said he finally told Pelosi, "Nancy, I've concluded I don't believe in cap and trade."

Also called "pollution credits," cap and trade sets emission limits. Producers that generate less pollution than allowed may sell credits to other polluters, authorizing buyers to pollute more.

Minnick said he opposed the bill, in part, because the sale of pollution credits could be controlled by speculators who've put oil prices on a roller coaster.

The bill also penalizes hydroelectric production and doesn't do enough for nuclear power, Minnick said. "Nuclear has to be part of our solution in the near term. There is no way that other forms of green energy will come on fast enough, even with substantial subsidies, to put any measurable dent in our fossil-fuel production over the next 25 years."

He predicted a better bill will be written in the Senate.

On health care, Minnick said he opposes a federal insurance company and will fight reform if it boosts the deficit.

On immigration, Minnick said employers must "have access to global talent" and said he'll support a plan striking a balance for 12 million people living illegally in the U.S.

"You have to find some solution that recognizes they've broken the law, imposes a punishment, but is more sophisticated than simply hiring every school bus all summer to cart 'em back across the border," Minnick said.

Dan Popkey: 377-6438