If you bought your home in 2005, you may be watching your equity wash away as housing prices get hosed.

But if you bought a home in 1998, your home value is likely up from when you bought it.

That's the bad news/good news scenario that Gerald Hunter, Idaho Housing and Finance Association president and executive director, left with Treasure Valley business people at the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce's annual economic outlook forum Wednesday.

He was one of several speakers at the forum. Others focused on energy, transportation and other national trends.

Hunter also gave a warning:

"If you cannot stop or stabilize home prices in the Valley, you do not have much of an opportunity for a turnaround."

His forecast: The Treasure Valley's housing market faces a significant challenge in 2009. But while home prices may continue to fall through early next year, some data suggest "we have nearly worked our way through the downturn."

Without stable house prices, recent buyers could continue to lose equity in their homes, Hunter said.

Lenders could continue their reluctance to make loans on houses losing value without hefty down payments and good credit from borrowers.

Buyers may delay purchasing houses and extend the downturn even further, believing they can get a home for less money at a later date, he said.

House values in Boise and Nampa rose 22 percent in 2005 as the housing bubble peaked, Hunter said. This year, they're projected to fall 5.9 percent.

People who bought when prices were spiraling could continue to see an erosion in value.

But people who have owned homes for longer periods - say a decade - have seen average increases of about 5.45 percent a year. That's on par with the national average, he said.

Despite dropping home prices, people shouldn't be too gloomy, said Portland-based economist Bill Conerly in a phone interview, "if they can develop amnesia about what their house was worth two years ago."

Bill Roberts: 377-6408