Have we hit bottom of housing bust?

Ada County's home inventory is down, but one skeptic calls the numbers 'grossly inaccurate.'

BY JOE ESTRELLA - jestrella@idahostatesman.com

Published: 08/19/08


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For the first time in 28 months, the number of Treasure Valley homes for sale offered a glimmer of hope for a stalled market.

Ada County homeowners were selling 5,055 homes at the end of July, compared with 5,198 a year ago, according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service.

This was the first time since February 2006 that there were fewer Ada County homes for sale in a month than in the same month the previous year, said Shaun Tracy, an associate broker with Re/Max Capital City.

The veteran Realtor called the numbers "good news" for the market. "It was a baby step in showing that we've been at the bottom of the market for a month, or two," Tracy said.

Canyon County was not so lucky. There were 2,765 homes on the Canyon County market last month, about 5 percent more than in July 2007.

The almost 8,000 homes awaiting buyers in the Valley is one of the reasons the local single-family market has been in a slump. The glut has contributed to falling home values in virtually every segment of the market, according to industry experts.

But while some were quick to call the decline in inventory a signal that the market may be on the verge of turning around, others said it was "grossly inaccurate" to declare July's numbers as an indication that the market is nearing the bottom.

Heinrich Wiebe of Wiebe Modern Realty said MLS monthly numbers historically do not include condominiums, townhomes, manufactured housing or trailer homes. When those listings are added in, the total number of homes on the market last month jumped to 5,697, he said, or almost 10 percent more than the July 2007 MLS inventory. Wiebe didn't have the comparable number for last year.

"If I can buy it, and live in it, then it's single-family housing," Wiebe said.

Tracy conceded that the MLS has never included these other housing units in its monthly inventory, but he said that historically, those types of housing made up a very small part of the market.

Phil Hoover, an associate broker with Re/Max West, said he also doesn't count condos, townhomes or manufactured homes in his own statistics, but he said a drop in inventory was no reason to get "torqued up," either.

"The market is pretty well flat," Hoover said.

More importantly, he said, sales numbers show that only one out of every 10 homes available is attracting buyers.

"The rest are either not in good showing condition, or are not priced correctly," he said.

Joe Estrella: 377-6465

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