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The slump in Treasure Valley housing prices is widespread, but not uniform.
Ada County
Median prices fell in all but two areas between January and June. The decreases ranged from a low of 4 percent in Northwest Boise - from $247,800 in January to $238,644 in June - to a staggering 40 percent in Southwest Meridian - from $550,000 to $329,000.
Canyon County
The biggest decline was in Middleton, where median prices fell 18 percent, to $179,900 from $219,000. The only increase was in Northeast Nampa, where median prices rose 4 percent, mostly thanks to the new Treasure Valley Marketplace that has created a high-growth area, said Mike Pennington, residential specialist with John L. Scott Real Estate in Boise.
North and Northeast Boise
One industry observer said it was not surprising that the only two areas in Ada County where prices are still rising are North and Northeast Boise. The median price in North Boise rose 12 percent to $328,500, and the median in Northeast Boise rose 30 percent to $367,500.
Lars Hansen, director of sales and product development for Brighton Homes, said North End housing prices are always strong because of the old-style architecture and attention to detail that attracts high-end buyers. There are also quality-of-life assets like proximity to Downtown shopping and entertainment and recreational areas like the Greenbelt, the Foothills and Lucky Peak.
"People (in the North End) are looking for character and quality. They're looking for something they can love," Hansen said. "And the North End architecture came during a time when building costs were less expensive. (Today), to duplicate that kind of detail could be prohibitively expensive."
Southwest Meridian
Hansen attributed the steep drop here to a falloff in the number of out-of-state buyers who were moving to Idaho during the boom years after making huge profits by selling their previous homes at the top of the national market, and to new lower-priced homes being built in response to a falling market.
Jacob Ashby and his fiancee, Whitney Lamb, did their homework before setting out in February to buy their first home.
The couple knew that Treasure Valley home-sales prices were under growing downward pressure. They guessed - correctly - that prices would likely retreat even further.
"From what I observed, and read in the paper, I knew that home prices would probably continue to fall and that waiting wouldn't hurt us," said Ashby, an internal auditor at Boise Inc.
The couple's patience paid off last week when they made a $162,000 offer on a new four-bedroom, two-bath house built by CBH Homes in the Bellingham Park subdivision in southeast Meridian, an area of middle-income homes where median home prices fell 8 percent during the first half of the year.
The latest sales statistics compiled by the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service show median prices of homes sold fell almost everywhere in the Valley between January and June, including neighborhoods new and old, rich ones and poor.
"There are always going to be anomalies within a market," said Mike Pennington, residential specialist with John L. Scott Real Estate in Boise. "But right now most of the subdivisions in the Treasure Valley are really, really struggling. And we have traumatized consumers who we have to convince to get into the market."
The home Ashby and Lamb bought had sat on the market since April 18. CBH originally priced it at $166,496 but came down to $164,990 before accepting the couple's offer of $162,000, said the couple's real-estate agent, Shaun Tracy of Re/Max Capital City.
Ashby said the couple was looking for lots of space in anticipation of starting a family.
"We thought about that when we were looking," Ashby said. "And with prices down, we thought we might as well get the space in case we need it."
Factors that worked in Ashby and Lamb's favor include:
A current inventory of more than 7,800 unsold homes in the Valley.
A growing number of short sales involving lenders who agree to take less than what was loaned on a property.
An explosion in foreclosures and bank repossessions that first add to the inventory of homes on the market, then drive prices down when the homes are sold at below-market value.
Scott Stingley, owner of Stonebrook Mortgage in Boise and president of the Idaho Association of Mortgage Brokers, said Ashby and Lamb illustrate one good thing that has come out of the housing slump: first-time homebuyers again can find affordable housing.
Falling prices and a provision in the federal economic-stimulus law have helped first-time homebuyers and may be a signal that the market has finally reached bottom, he said. The provision allows Federal Housing Administration to increase the loan amounts it will guarantee to $303,000, from $231,000.
Tracy said Ashby and Lamb also benefited from their subdivision's proximity to Southwest Boise. Their area in Southeast Meridian had a median price of $235,000 in June. However, the median price in nearby Southwest Boise/Meridian was only $183,000. That has set off competition among home builders that has helped drive down prices even further, Tracy said. The same house a year ago would have cost the couple an extra 20 percent, he said.
"At the point of sale, builders are doing whatever it takes to sell their homes," he said.
Most of the home sales being logged in the Valley are for houses between $180,000 and $250,000, or what Lars Hansen, director of sales and product development for Brighton Homes, calls "the sweet spot of the market" where buyers hunt bargains.
And bargains are out there.
In West Boise, for example, the median price of a new house in January was $200,000, an existing house $181,000. By June, the medians had fallen to $164,000 and $160,000, or 18 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
"People are looking for bargains no matter what the area," Pennington said. "All price ranges are being compressed because after a 26-month downturn, sellers have finally taken a bite out the reality sandwich, and they're lowering their price."
Helping depress home prices are a growing number of sales by lenders who would rather sell a house for less money than is owed on a mortgage than to go through the expense of repossessing the house, making repairs, and then trying to sell it.
According to IdahoDataProviders, which tracks these "short sales" and foreclosures statewide, between May 1 and July 11 the number of short sales listed on the MLS grew to 892 from 605, a 47 percent spike in just over two months. In June, short sales made up 26 percent of all pending sales.
Foreclosures were up 121 percent in Ada County in June and 157 percent in Canyon County compared with June 2007. That's helping depress prices, too.
But Stingley is not convinced that short sales and foreclosure sales are dominating the market, arguing that they make up only 10 percent of his firm's business.
His prediction: The increase in FHA loan amounts, and more first-time buyers entering the market, will revive area housing sales by the second half of 2009.
Meanwhile, Ashby knew that waiting to find the exact home he and his fiancee wanted would come at some risk.
"The wild card always was interest rates," he said. "And it went up a little bit, but at the same time, prices were coming down. So it was worth waiting."
Joe Estrella: 377-6465.
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