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Logic seems to dictate that since money is tight, cheap beer sales would be growing - not the sales of $10 sixers.
I guess logic doesn't apply to our growing tribe of craft beer enthusiasts. Recent stats show if we are going to allocate precious financial resources to drink beer, more people than ever are willing to pay for quality - even if the most basic sixer of craft brew these days is going to run you at least $7 (like Sierra Nevada) to about $9 or $10 (like Stone Brewing).
The Boulder-based Brewers Association reports that craft beer sales grew almost 6 percent in 2008 - the only area of noticeable growth in the beer biz.
If I had to guess where growth would be during the current economic apocalypse, I would say sales of cheap beer like Pabst or Keystone or tried-and-true brands like Budweiser or Miller Lite would be up.
But regular beer sales were flat last year, only growing about one-half of a percent, said Eric Shepard, executive editor of Beer Marketer's Insights Web site, which tracks beer sales in the U.S.
So what's with the growth of the crafty stuff?
"It's still a small base (of customers) with room for growth, craft brewers get good press, and they make good beers!" Shepard said. "A certain number of consumers continue to trade up, to enjoy what people are calling 'affordable luxury' with the craft brands.
"I also think, with the economy, more consumers are embracing local products, like craft beer. The hometown aspect certainly helps."
There is a lot of local beer being produced in the U.S. Here in Boise, we are blessed to have four unique brewpubs with totally homegrown suds (Sockeye, TableRock, The Ram, and Highlands Hollow) and several great beer bars, like the Bittercreek Alehouse and Front Door, which feature local and regional beers.
We also have several top-notch craft brands in bottles from nearby Oregon and Washington to keep our dollars regional.
For Paul Gatza, director of the Boulder-based Brewers Association, the answer is quality control.
"I think the primary reason is that consumers see craft beer as a good value for their money," Gatza said. "The beers might cost more and raise expectations, but they really deliver on flavor. Consumers respond to that."
Matt Gelsthorpe, the beer buyer at the Boise Co-Op, reports that his craft beer sales were up in 2008 and have continued to rise in the first few months of 2009.
Gelsthorpe suspects that people are buying more craft beer to drink at home because they are not going out as much.
"I think we are seeing people being a little more selective with their money and trying to recreate the restaurant experience at the home," Gelsthorpe said. "If they are choosing to stay in, they can do it with a good craft beer."
"Those buzzwords 'affordable luxury' have been going around since, what, July? I think that is a valid point," Gelsthorpe said.
I think this has a lot to do with it. It's like what Delaware-based Dogfishhead Brewing president Sam Calagione told the Washington Post in February about his beers, which can cost $10 or more a bottle for their strongest beers, like the 120-minute IPA. "If you wanted to spend $10 for a world-class wine, they'd have to dispense that volume of wine into a Dixie cup."
Another interesting factor is that craft beer prices rose in 2008, thanks to $4 gallons of gas, a worldwide hop shortage, and higher barley prices. And we still bought more beer.
One bad thing about that for the imbibing consumer is that prices really haven't come down.
It appears that extra 50 cents or dollar we now pay for our favorite six packs is here to stay.
Thanks for nothing, free market economy.
Shepard does point out that craft beer sales still only make up a fraction of total beer sales - about 4 percent total. The vast majority of beer sold in the US, about 80 percent, is produced by brewing giants like Anheuser-Busch and Miller/Coors.
To put it in perspective, of the 184 million beer barrels sold in the U.S. last year, about 8.6 million of those barrels were craft beer, according to the Beer Institute and the Brewers Association.
(Time out for Beer Education 101. For industry sales accounting purposes, beer output is measured in barrels - 31 gallon full kegs - even if the beer ends up in bottles or cans. Using that math, Americans drank 5.7 billion gallons of beer last year, 266 million gallons of which were craft beer.)
Big brewers have noticed, however. Meager though it may seem, the steady growth of craft beer sales over the last five years have pushed Anheuser-Busch to make their first real foray in the market with the Budweiser American Ale and several of their Michelob brands - many of which are quite tasty.
The good news in all this for craft beer fanatics is that continued innovation and improvement have led to more sales, which means more good beer for us to drink when we could really use it.
Patrick Orr's beer column runs the first Friday of the month.
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