For some foreign-policy analysts, the bloodshed this month in Iraqs western Anbar province, where more than 1,000 American forces died in the fight against Sunni Muslim insurgents, is a reminder that the U.S.-led war, begun in 2003, galvanized a jihadist movement that plagues the region today.
Analysts in this camp say the lesson is that U.S. military intervention whether in Iraqs current violence or in the civil war in neighboring Syria is too risky in a region thats highly unstable after the so-called Arab Spring uprisings.
In the opposing camp, other analysts argue that its precisely the Obama administrations inaction on Syria thats allowed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria an al-Qaida affiliate to carve out operational space in the lawless stretch between rebel-controlled eastern Syria and the tribal badlands of western Iraq.
Had the U.S. only armed the early moderate rebels, the reasoning goes, they wouldve been a more formidable foil to the jihadists who ultimately hijacked the movement to try and topple Syrian President Bashar Assads regime. Now, the al-Qaida operatives trying to reclaim territory in Iraqs Anbar province have a cross-border escape route, making it difficult for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to rout them even with expedited weapons deliveries from the United States.
Now all of a sudden the Obama administration realizes, Wait, we should get involved here because al-Qaida has this massive base in eastern Syria. Well, now its almost too late, said Kirk Sowell, a Jordan-based political risk analyst whos the editor of the newsletter Inside Iraqi Politics.
Sowell said the United States should push al-Maliki on reforms that would make his security apparatus more representative and professional, but he added that the war in Syria limits the extent to which the prime minister would be able to confront al-Qaida.
The link between the Anbar unrest and the civil war next door is another point of contention in foreign policy circles, where many analysts dont buy the argument that the bloodshed that straddles the Iraqi-Syrian border couldve been avoided had the U.S. moved quickly to support the moderate rebels.
The British journalist Brian Whitaker, whos covered the Middle East for years with The Guardian newspaper, wrote this week that for all the criticism of the U.S. response to Syria, nobody has come up with an alternative thats indisputably better.
To some extent, Obama is being blamed for not behaving towards Syria as George Bush behaved towards Iraq and we all know where that led, Whitaker wrote on al-bab.com, his blog about politics in the Arab world. There are still too many Americans who find it difficult to accept that the power of the United States has limitations and who view every problem, no matter where it occurs, as one that the U.S. has an obligation to try and solve even at the risk of making things worse.
Anbar provinces descent has spawned a flurry of commentary from longtime Iraq observers whose advice to the White House ranges from steering clear and letting the Iraqis resolve an internal conflict to beefing up military support for al-Maliki in a decisive battle to keep al-Qaida from reclaiming an old foothold.
So far the U.S. response has been fairly muted. Secretary of State John Kerry declared, This is their fight, and ruled out the possibility of sending U.S. troops to help. But the administration did accelerate the delivery of 100 Hellfire missiles and 10 drones, and is lobbying Congress to permit the sale of a fleet of attack helicopters.
Lawmakers have been reluctant to support the sale because of al-Malikis backsliding on the path to more democratic rule.
James Jeffrey, who was the U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2010 to 2012, told PBS NewsHour that he disagreed with Kerrys stance, and he argued that the United States should focus on flushing out al-Qaida even if it meant going soft on al-Maliki. The eradication of al-Qaida in Iraq should be a national security priority for the United States, he argued.
This is our fight, Jeffrey said this week in a PBS appearance. We fought there in 2004 and we fought there, in part, to drive al-Qaida out after they established a foothold. The Maliki government, for all of its problems, is still a government thats a quasi-ally of ours.