What happens when previously uninsured Idahoans seek out preventative care as the Affordable Care Act takes effect in the coming months?
What sort of stress will those newly insured patients 20 percent, according to County Health Rankings and Roadmaps put on an already stressed medical system?
Thats the million-dollar question, says Neva Santos, executive director of the Idaho Academy of Family Physicians.
Im just hoping we have enough physicians to cover all of those patients who want to get in to a physician, Santos says.
What Santos referenced is a blemish in the states medical field. Idaho has struggled to maintain a healthy ratio of patients to physicians. Idaho ranks 47th of 51 states and the District of Columbia in its ratio of primary care physicians to patients, according to the Robert Graham Center, a research and advocacy arm of the American Academy of Family Physicians.
The national benchmark is one primary care physician for every 1,000 patients. Idahos ratio is 1,491 patients to each physician.
In the Magic Valleys eight counties, that ratio is even worse 1,649:1 in Cassia, 1,761:1 in Twin Falls, 2,869:1 in Minidoka and 5,214:1 in Lincoln, according to County Health Rankings and Roadmaps, a project of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute.
Santos says it wont be easy to attract more doctors. A rural state with no medical school, Idaho has a large physician gap to fill in the next few years if it hopes to keep pace with demand.
Just to maintain the status quo, the Robert Graham Center estimates Idaho will need 382 more primary-care doctors or 44 percent of the 864-physician 2010 work force by 2030. Of the increased need, 21 percent will come from the burden of an aging population, 67 percent from population growth and 10 percent or about 40 physicians from changes under the Affordable Care Act.
We just keep working at it, and the numbers are going up we are doing better but we still need more primary care physicians, Santos says.
If physician numbers dont improve, the situation could become drastic: increased wait lines, higher costs, exacerbated acute medical conditions and a system rendered ineffective, she says.
ST. LUKES MAKES HIRING A PRIORITY
Its proven that a patient who has a good relationship with a primary care provider leads to the highest-quality, lowest-cost care, says Dr. Steven Kohtz, St. Lukes medical director for primary care in the Magic Valley region.
For that reason, insurance and access are important fewer patients will need hospitalization and fewer will land in the emergency room. The key is making sure patients get attention when they need it, he says.
Administrators at St. Lukes Magic Valley and Jerome have made access and recruiting physicians a top priority, says Johanna Stagge, director of primary care. St. Lukes has added five nurse practitioners and physician assistants, in addition to three family physicians with a fourth on the way and a pediatrician this year.
If St. Lukes can expand its provider base, it may be able to get ahead of the wave of new patients.
From the outside looking in, I understand it would be nonintuitive that you are hiring all these new primary care providers, how is that going to provide lower cost? Kohtz says. But it takes a very small decrease in [hospitalizations and emergency room visits] for you to offset, and then some, the cost of primary care.
RECRUITING TO RURAL AREAS IS A PROBLEM
Across the state, many physicians are aging and looking to turn their practices over to younger physicians, Santos says. If they leave now, they realize that community will struggle, she says.
But recruiting in rural areas like the Magic Valley is a challenge, Santos and Kohtz agree. The top reason an area might struggle to lure doctors, Santos says, is because of a doctors spouse: If he or she doesnt like the community or has a special line of work, the couple will go elsewhere.
We are working with communities to help them understand what those issues are for them, Santos says.
Kohtz says St. Lukes leans on its rural training program for residents if doctors train in an area, they are more likely to stay, he says. Currently, there are four St. Lukes residents in the Magic Valley and Jerome regions, Stagge says.
It is hard to say how many new physicians St. Lukes will need to bring to the area to meet its demand, Stagge says. A recent community-health needs assessment across eight counties indicated the need for at least 24 more physicians, he says.
Stagge says St. Lukes is well poised for the next few years.
INITIAL HEADACHES, LONG-TERM OPTIMISM
The Magic Valley-based Family Health Services is also preparing for the wave of newly insured patients, says CEO Lynn Hudgens.
In the past year, the nonprofit community health agency has hired one new physician, two nurse practitioners and a physicians assistant.
Hudgens doesnt expect Family Health Services to be hit as hard as St. Lukes or other providers, because many of the patients it now treats 47 percent are uninsured. Family Health Services has hired five workers to raise community awareness, promote the new health care marketplaces known as exchanges, and help enroll local uninsured patients.
Many state health care professionals, including Susie Pouliot, are optimistic about Idaho being able to meet physician demand in the long run.
Initially, providers will have headaches, but if the system works correctly, an emphasis on prevention and wellness will help level the systemic pressures, says Pouliot, CEO of the Idaho Medical Association.
A lot of these people who have not been insured havent been accessing care, and they are going to have more acute problems that havent been addressed that need to be taken care of immediately, she says.
Santos says there are a number of things Idaho could do to increase its chances of successfully navigating the next few years.
The biggest is to help with medical students debt loads, she says. If there was a way the state could help with debt reduction, it might be able to lure more physicians. Pouliot agrees and says the Idaho Medical Association has advocated for such measures but hasnt gotten anywhere in the Idaho Legislature.
The Idaho Medical Association has also advocated for increased access to medical schools and residency training programs, Pouliot says: Expanding the pipeline, if you will, of getting students and physicians into it with the hopes they will end up practicing in Idaho when they train here and have exposure to our health system in Idaho.
Idaho natives hoping to go to medical school can apply for a program that allows students in participating states to pay in-state tuition at the University of Washington. While there is no guarantee that students will return to Idaho after residency, Santos says her organization works hard to recruit those physicians back to the state.
Last year, the Legislature increased the number of seats it funded for that program to 25 from 20. (Eight more students go to the University of Utah.) Thats progress, but its far from an instant fix to the problem, Santos warns: It is not going to help for seven years.