Bowl Championship Series analyst Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com this week projected Boise State to play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. He has been bullish on the Broncos’ BCS chances for weeks. Boise State needs to finish in the top 16 of the BCS standings, ahead of the champions of the other non-BCS conferences and ahead of one champion of a BCS conference to qualify automatically. Here’s what Palm had to say about Boise State and the BCS:

Question: You’ve been skeptical of Boise State’s BCS chances in the past. What has made you so sure they’ll get there this year?

Answer: I don’t know if I’m that sure. They’ve got to get to 11-1 to give that prediction a shot. That was the prediction at the beginning of the year. I looked at them and realized they have to replace a lot but there’s not a big threat to them in the Mountain West. If they don’t beat Michigan State, that’s not something that would necessarily hurt them because there wasn’t anyone else. There wasn’t a (non-BCS team) you’re looking at and saying, ‘They’re going to go 12-0 and they’re going to beat somebody to get your attention.’ Louisiana Tech almost got there.

Question: If Boise State wins out, what are its chances of making the top 16?

Answer: I think they get to 16. I feel pretty comfortable they would get to 16 at 11-1. They might even be 14. I don’t think they get to 12. Twelve would require a lot more help than you can reasonably expect. A lot of that depends on how they play. If they can put up some numbers, style points, that’s always important. The computers will take care of themselves at 11-1. They have to impress the voters and that means not beating Wyoming by three in ridiculous conditions.

Question: The computers are hurting Boise State now. You think that changes?

Answer: I don’t think the computers will be their problem. They’ve got to get on board with the voters. The voters have to get them up into the top 15 or so. At 11-1, competing against 9-3, 8-4 type teams down in that part of the rankings, I think the computers will end up being OK.

Question: How much of a threat are undefeated Ohio and one-loss Louisiana Tech?

Answer: Louisiana Tech is definitely not a threat. I don’t think Ohio is, either. I don’t think Ohio is going to finish the job. Even if they do, they’re playing like the 120th-ranked schedule.

Question: It seems like Boise State finishes behind a two-loss Big Ten champ but ahead of a three-loss champ. Is that right?

Answer: I think that’s fair. I think an 11-2 Big Ten champion is probably going to jump them. A 10-3 champion, they have a chane to finish ahead of. And then if the Big East doesn’t finish with an undefeated champion, Boise has a good chance fo finishing ahead of them, too.

Question: Where do you see Boise State falling in the BCS selections?

Answer: They’d be the last team picked (the Orange Bowl has the last pick) and the Fiesta Bowl possible matchup with Oklahoma is the only exception to that.

Question: How do you see the national championship race?

Answer: It’s Alabama until somebody beats them. They look like a juggernaut. I have Kansas State with the best chance of the other teams to actually finish undefeated. I think there are bigger potholes in other people’s schedules. Oregon’s schedule is backloaded. … But if Oregon does finish undefeated, nobody’s catching them for No. 2.