I don't think the 1st Congressional District race will really take shape until the end of November - or whenever Bill Sali decides whether he plans to seek his old job.

The Republican lineup changed considerably Tuesday, when state Rep. Ken Roberts of Donnelly left the race and state Rep. Raul Labrador of Eagle entered the race.

But Sali remains the wild card.

Let's look at the shakeout, player by player:

Roberts: Citing an undisclosed health issue, Roberts shut down a surprisingly sluggish campaign. The House's majority caucus chairman had parlayed his leadership position into a lengthy list of endorsements from Statehouse Republicans.

Beyond that, though, his campaign never caught on. Roberts raised only $62,021 through Sept. 30, a slow pace that prompted campaign manager Kevin McGowan to resign. "I just didn't think we'd be able to pay the bills," he said. Never a good sign.

You can expect considerable jockeying for endorsements from the lawmakers who had backed Roberts. Labrador and Sali (who served in the Legislature from 1990 to 2006) would covet these endorsements. And does Roberts himself weigh in?

Labrador: His run for a higher stage hardly registers as a surprise. Earlier this year, the rumor mill had Labrador challenging Lt. Gov. Brad Little from the right.

While Labrador is in just his second term, he has established a profile. In the 2009 session, he was a vocal opponent of Gov. Butch Otter's attempts to raise gas taxes, bucking Roberts and the rest of House leadership on a last-gasp 2-cent-per-gallon increase. At the 2008 state GOP convention, Labrador picked up some cachet with conservatives by siding with Sali in the orchestrated ouster of state chairman Kirk Sullivan.

Labrador's voting record will play well with social and fiscal conservatives - a reliable bloc in primaries that tend to draw low turnout. This base could go a long way to offset the disadvantages of jumping into a race six months before a primary.

Sali: But if Sali jumps into the race, he's likely to secure the conservative base. He's simply better-known than Labrador, and this "brand loyalty" helps him in a GOP primary.

He'll need that, because he would bring considerable baggage to a return race. Having lost in a reliably GOP district just a year ago, Sali would have to convince fellow Republicans that he is still electable. Then there are the debts left over from Sali's 2008 run, which totaled $112,725 on Sept. 30.

Sali isn't saying much. He tells The Associated Press that he will make a decision by the end of November. In the meantime, who gets Sali's ear? Conservative loyalists who want him back? Fellow Republicans who'd just as soon see him step aside? A combination of both?

Vaughn Ward: It's taken me a while, but now let's talk about the GOP's de facto frontrunner. By jumping in the race months ago, and amassing $245,877 through Sept. 30, Ward enjoyed an organizational and money advantage over Roberts. Those advantages transfer to a race against Labrador, or Sali, or both.

The former Iraq War veteran and Dirk Kempthorne Senate aide has also made a name for himself in national circles, with endorsements ranging from Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., to House Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va. Ward's inside-the-Beltway support is a plus in a race that is already receiving national attention.

In the short run, Ward has the campaign infrastructure to keep plugging away while the race remains in a Sali-induced flux. Down the road, his big weakness is that he has never run for office. How would he perform in what could be a crowded and bruising primary?

Walt Minnick: Flux favors the Democratic incumbent. So does a contentious GOP primary.

Any dollar spent in a primary is a dollar that cannot be spent against Minnick. And Minnick sets the price of admission for the 2010 general election. Minnick has $267,682 in campaign debts, but he has also raised $885,844 through Sept. 30.

According to the conventional wisdom, the best-case scenario for Minnick is a rematch with Sali. Perhaps. But what Minnick needs most is a GOP primary that pushes candidates to the right. This gives Minnick his best chance of securing the Democratic base that supported him in 2008 - including voters now turned off by his votes on health care reform, cap-and-trade and economic stimulus. It also gives him his best chance of recapturing his independent and crossover GOP support from 2008.

Kevin Richert: 377-6437