Too many elections to think about? Too little time? Hey, tell me about it. As the Statesman editorial board wraps up the last of its 42 endorsements this week, let me try to make it a little easier for you political watchers.

Here is my reasonably informed yet still ultimately unscientific list of the Top Ten election results to watch.

10 THE REX RAMMELL OVER-UNDER. I've yet to see a poll that suggests Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Risch will lose next week's Senate race. Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco is trumpeting a Huffington Post piece, which pegs Risch's lead at 12 percent and puts the front-runner at 45 percent - below a shatterproof 50 percent majority.

LaRocco's best and probably only hope is for a razor-thin race and winning with 45 percent or so. He needs Rammell, an independent nominee and Risch nemesis, to get close to double digits. If Rammell pulls 2 or 3 percent, it's game over.

9 LES BOCK VS. CHRIST TROUPIS. Lot of money pouring into this Senate race in legislative District 16, Garden City and Northwest Boise. (According to this week's finance reports, the Republican Troupis has raised $71,627; Bock, a Democratic House member, has raised $42,728.)

The race may come down to associations. If Troupis, an attorney, is effectively tied to high-profile fundamentalist clients such as Bryan Fischer and Brandi Swindell, this could cost Troupis dearly. District 16's voting history favors Democrats and moderate Republicans.

8BRANDEN DURST VS. JULIE ELLSWORTH. In 2006, the Democrats swept legislative District 18. Ellsworth, the House's majority caucus chairwoman, was one of the casualties. This race will give us a really good sense of the Democrats' strength in this south Boise district. We'll also get a sense of the voters' mood during the downturn; Ellsworth is hitting the economic theme hard in this Micron Technology-dependent district.

7BRIAN CRONIN VS. KEVIN MCGOWAN. I'd be surprised if the Republican McGowan can break through in legislative District 19, the historically Democratic North and East ends. But McGowan is ahead in the fundraising battle, generating $62,119 to the Democrat Cronin's $42,699. This district is a Democratic stronghold until a Republican proves capable of winning there. McGowan gives the GOP its first viable chance in District 19 in years.

6OBAMA'S BOISE NUMBERS - AND MCCAIN/PALIN'S IDAHO NUMBERS. First, here's what happened in 2004. President Bush won Boise 54 percent to 45 percent, and romped statewide, 68 to 30 percent.

Republican John McCain will win Idaho, but I doubt he pulls 68 percent. The Boise vote figures to be close - and if Democrat Barack Obama wins Boise, I won't be shocked.

The Federal Election Commission reports back up this theory. Obama, who has outraised McCain across Idaho, enjoys a particularly strong edge in Boise-area zip codes: $222,141 to McCain's $96,745. Second, and purely anecdotal: the reader reaction to our Oct. 19 Obama endorsement, while leaning negative, hasn't been nearly as visceral as the response to our 2004 endorsement of Democrat John Kerry.

5ELFREDA HIGGINS VS. ELIZABETH ALLAN HODGE. I don't believe any legislative election has generated as many letters to the editor as this District 16 House race. This is, again, anecdotal evidence, but it certainly suggests a pair of motivated campaigns. There's an undercurrent to the race, as Hodge supporters point to Higgins' clumsy defection from the GOP.

The Republican Hodge is probably more conservative than her district, but this will still be an intriguing race.

4KATE KELLY VS. DEAN SORENSEN. The Valley's best legislative matchup. It's a shame legislative elections don't have a consolation bracket. I can think of several needy local legislative districts (such as the Meridian area's woebegone District 20) that would certainly trade up with either of these candidates. The good news: For my money, District 18 voters can't lose.

Speaking of money, this is another legislative race that raises the cost of admission: through this week, Kelly has raised $66,683 to Sorensen's $52,797.

3THE ADA COUNTY COMMISSION RACES. The key number is 43 percent. In 2006, Democrat Paul Woods pulled 43 percent and won a three-person race for commissioner. Democrat Al Ames pulled 43 percent and lost a head-to-head race with Republican Fred Tilman.

Neither commissioner's race is a gimme for Democrats Woods and David Langhorst, who probably need to win Boise handily and offset losses in GOP-friendly Meridian and Eagle. Woods may have the better chance, running as an incumbent against polarizing Republican Sharon Ullman. But Langhorst, who won something of a breakthrough legislative race six years ago, has run a very strong campaign against Republican incumbent Rick Yzaguirre, collecting a bipartisan array of endorsements.

2THE ADA COUNTY HIGHWAY DISTRICT VEHICLE FEE. The pocketbook issue of Tuesday's election. Voters will be asked to essentially double their local vehicle registration fee, from an average of $13 a year to $24 a year, to bankroll $4 million annually in transportation projects.

Regardless of the outcome, lawmakers will cite the results next winter as they debate statewide tax or fee increases for roads.

This seems to me less of a referendum on ACHD than it is a referendum on consumer confidence. It's probably a big relief to ACHD that the fee increase needs only a simple majority to pass. Even though the ACHD makes a good case for the money, this is by no means a slam-dunk.

1BILL SALI VS. WALT MINNICK. OK, OK, this is a no-kidding No. 1 pick.

Rather than sort out the polls, let's look at the recent history.

The Republican Sali won the 1st Congressional District race two years ago, in a non-presidential election year, with 49.9 percent of the vote. Not a ringing mandate.

Conventional wisdom holds that a presidential election helps Republican congressional candidates. But not always: Helen Chenoweth-Hage was elected in 1994 with 55.4 percent, and was re-elected in 1996 with 50 percent.

The conventional wisdom also holds that Canyon County is a Sali stronghold. Yet in 2006, he won only 53.5 percent in Canyon County. In May 2008, facing GOP challenger Matt Salisbury, Sali won Canyon County with only 51.9 percent (Sali won with 60.1 percent district-wide).

The conventional wisdom also would suggest that Democrat Walt Minnick should fare well in Ada County. But that's not a lock, since the 1st District encompasses the conservative western part of Ada County. Sali won Ada County with 49.8 percent in November 2006, and 57.1 percent in the May primary.

Ada County still boasts the biggest bloc of votes in the 1st District. If Minnick wins Ada County, it's a very good omen for him. But we probably won't be able to call this race until we see what happens in Canyon and Kootenai counties.

The safest bet of all: Your day-after-Election Day paper won't declare a winner in this one. My over-under on calling this race: Noon Wednesday.

Kevin Richert: 377-6437